“I assess that this year in the U.S. there will be an assassination attempt against a national-level, elected U.S. politician. As many analysts and pundits have observed, America’s current level of partisanship and divisiveness is unprecedented in recent history (the years leading up to the U.S. Civil War, the Civil War itself, and the election of 1876 are solid competitors).”
That quote is from my 2023 Global Risk & Intelligence Forecast. I was a year off.
Risk intelligence and geopolitical analysis are far more difficult than the vast majority of people (including policy makers) assume. But not as difficult as it is to rein in America’s divisions–a festering, simmering problem that has been boiling over for the past 15 years.
Right now I don’t see America’s situation getting better.
- Campbell’s 2023 Global Risk & Intelligence Forecast (February 9, 2023)
Recent Threats Against U.S Presidents: Pathway to Violence & Warning Behaviors (August 15, 2023)
